“The last crazy”before NEV subsidies phase-out

This year, the policy of NEV subsidies that will continue to phase-out caused a strong reaction from consumers. At the same time, car companies also introduced different response policies. Thus, “The last crazy” in the new energy passenger vehicle market appeared before the subsidy removal. IIA learnt from China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) that in April, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in narrow sense was 86,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 24.6% but a decrease of 18.9% over the previous month. The cumulative sales volume from January to April was 335,000 units, an increase of 83.9% year-on-year.

At present, in the case of the overall sluggish Chinese auto market, the new energy auto market has experienced a reverse growth. In the first three months of 2018, sales were 136,000 units, and in April, sales volume was 82,000 units, a total of 218,000 units. In the first quarter of 2019, sales exceeded the total of the first four months of last year, reaching 253,000 units, an increase of 116% year-on-year. Among them, the total sales of pure electric vehicles totaled 200,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 151.5%, and the plug-in hybrid models were sold a total of 53,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 42.1%. BYD, BAIC BJEV and other established NEV companies all made a great performance.

Although the outlook is very good, this year, due to the policy, many consumers are still on the sidelines, which has affected some sales of NEVs. In addition, car companies have also accelerated the upgrading of their NEVs. In this complex economic environment, there are still many uncertainties in the future for the new energy passenger vehicle market to continue to maintain growth. However, it is an opportunity for the established NEV companies. For example, BYD, BAIC BJEV, Great Wall Motor and other companies have begun to show their skills.

As we can see from the chart above that the BYD brand's models occupy three seats, while the BAIC EU series is the second. Although the BAIC EU series ranked second, compared with the same period over the previous year, the increase of this series is 3089.5%. Then is the BYD Tang DM, an increase of 959.4% year-on-year. The last is the Roewe Ei5, 496.4%.

BAIC BJEV EU series were sold 755 units in the first four months of 2018, while in 2019, the sales volume of it reached 24,081 units, an increase of 3089.5% over the same period of the previous year. The doubling of the performance was really amazing.

The BYD Tang DM has been active in the market. In the first four months of 2018, the cumulative sales volume was 1,775 units. In the first four months of this year, the total sales volume reached 18,804 units, a year-on-year increase of 959.4%. Even though the increase of it was not as markedly as the the BAIC BJEV EU series, such achievements were also worthy of recognition.

The Roewe Ei5 was loved by consumers at the beginning of its launch. In the first four months of 2018, the cumulative sales volume reached 2,111 units. By 2019, it reached 12,590 units, a year-on-year increase of 496.4%. The above three models all showed significant growth, of which BYD Tang DM grew the fastest. We can also see the current level of consumer love for SUV models and long-range models.

After the first quarter of 2019, sales of NEVs in April have experienced subtle changes. For example, the Chery eQ, the Ora R1, the Passat PHEV and JAC IEV 6E all play the role of "dark horse" in the monthly list.

In April, the top ten of the list changed slightly. Although BYD's new energy models still hold three seats, the rising star is also chasing after it. For example, sales of the Chery eQ, the Roewe Ei5, the Ora R1 all exceeded more than 3,500 units. In addition, there was the SAIC Volkswagen Passat PHEV in the list, which is the only joint-venture plug-in hybrid vehicle that has been selected for the monthly chart.

In the sales volume in this April, the BYD Tang DM still maintained a continuous growth, with a monthly sales volume of 3,829 vehicles. Compared with 168 vehicles in the same period last year, it had an increase of 2179.2% over the previous year.

In addition to the BYD Tang DM, the sales of the BAIC BJEV EU series also performed great. In last April, only 352 units of the series were sold, However, in this April, the sales volume reached 4738 units, a year-on-year increase of 1246%.

The Roewe Ei5 was sold 1,397 units in last April. This April, the car was sold 4,003 units, an increase of 186.5% year-on-year. Through analyzing those data we can find that the BYD brand has made great achievements in the new energy market, especially the BYD Tang DM model has grown extremely rapidly. Moreover, its financial report for the first quarter of 2019 showed that BYD achieved contrarian profit, with revenue of 30.304 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.50%. The company achieved a net profit attributed to shareholders of 750 million yuan, a growth of 631.98% over the same period of the previous year.

In addition, BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu mentioned: "BYD's auto business will usher in a new round of growth cycle, and the company's NEV profitability will also be significantly improved in the second half of the year."

Since the beginning of 2019, the overall situation of the new energy market has performed well. At the enterprise level, BYD was prominent in the new energy market and maintained its outstanding sales. At the same time, other brands are catching up. With the addition of more new models to the market, especially the emergence of “black horses” such as the BAIC BJEV and the Ora, the overall sales volume of BYD's NEVs is bound to affect. Counting the subsidy policy, there will be large fluctuations in the future new energy market. 

(Data Source: China Passenger Car Association (CPCA))