Roewe’s sales continued to fall, and bigger pressure in 2nd half

In the first half of 2019, the Chinese auto market continued its downward trend. According to the latest statistics from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), the domestic narrow sense passenger vehicle market sold 1.582 million units in this May, down 12.5% year-on-year. The monthly sales volume reached 8.187 million units, down 11.9% year-on-year. In the context of the sluggish auto market, the market share of Chinese car brands fell below 40% for the first time. Roewe, which had previously experienced growth, also declined in sales.

1. Roewe showed a downward trend in the first half of the year

Roewe is currently working on the strategy of electrification, intelligent interconnectivity, sharing and internationalization. But in 2019, the Chinese auto market is still "sad" for Roewe.

Roewe sold 35,330 units in May this year, down 9.9% from 39,225 units in May 2018. Sales between January and May were 173,727 units, down 12.4% from 198,247 units in the same period last year. More than 10% of the decline also cast a long shadow on Roewe's mid-term and year-end performance.

In 2019, the market share of Chinese car brands in the market showed a downward trend, with a market share of only 34.1% in May. The shrinking market share is also the cause of the sharp decline in sales of Chinese car brands. Of course, there are also many automakers like the Great Wall Motor that have developed against the trend. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales volume of Great Wall Motor has exceeded 430,000 units, an increase of 5.11% year-on-year.

Throughout the entire automotive market, segments, including sedan, SUV and MPV have experienced varying degrees of decline this year. Let’s take Roewe as an example, the main sales model Roewe i5 was launched in last October, with sales of 11,509 units in May this year. Sales from January to May reached 67,742 units.

The higher-end Roewe i6 showed signs of fatigue. The sales volume in May was only 962 units, which was significantly lower than the 8,397 units in 2018. The sales volume in the first five months was 7,166 units, 78.7% lower than the 33,616 units in 2018. The sales of SUV models are also worrying. The sales volume of the main model Roewe RX5 in the first five months of this year was 47,617 units, down by 47.5% from 90,671 units in 2018. The Roewe RX3 sold only 12,607 units in the first five months, compared with 30,394 units in the same period of the previous year, a drop of 58.5%.

2. Nation-VI emission standards ahead of implementation / large destocking pressure

From the model sales data, it is not difficult to see that Roewe's biggest concern may not be the 10% or more decline, but most models except for individual products have seen a sharp decline in sales. If it is not the sales growth of Roewe i5 and Roewe Ei5, its market performance may be even more bleak. Of course, the large fluctuations in sales volume are also related to factors such as the downward pressure on the macro economy and the early implementation of the Nation-VI emission standards in some regions.

The first-tier cities represented by Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen will implement the Nation-VI emission standards ahead of July 1 this year, which also leads to weak market consumption, insufficient consumer confidence, and obvious consumer wait-and-see mood. At present, the priority of each car company is to sell the existing Nation-V emission standard products as soon as possible, so as to minimize the losses caused by the failure of the Nation-V models to be licensed after the implementation of the new emission standards. In this regard, Lu Xianqing, senior manager of SAIC Group's Roewe brand, said in an interview with IIA: "The new model and the Nation-VI products will be released one after another, and the new car listing price and relevant policies will be announced later."

In addition, IIA visited some franchised dealers of Roewe. At present, the inventory of the Nation-V models of most dealers is basically empty, leaving only a small number of unpopular models. For the purchase of the Nation-VI model, a dealer in charge of the store revealed to the IIA: "The Nation-VI model will be delivered to the store at the end of June, and it will be delivered in July."

Some people familiar with the matter analyzed that for Roewe, with the date of implementation of the new emission standards approaching, the Nation-V models will gradually withdraw. However, based on the current market situation, Roewe's inventory and dealer’s pressure in the second half of this year will still be large.